BBC Learning English - 6 Minute English: How do climate scientists make predictions?

Episode 260806 / 06 Aug 2026

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核心介绍

中文简介

本期节目探讨气候科学家如何进行预测。Phil 和 Pippa 讨论气候模型的工作原理、预测与投影的关键区别、云层对气候的双重效应、地球能量失衡的测量单位（瓦特每平方米），并教授 6 个实用词汇：prediction、conditional、the thing about、out of whack、pro-something、not on the table。

重点词汇表

课文重点解析

1. 核心区别：Prediction vs Projection

Kate Marvel: “Climate models don’t make predictions – they make projections. Predictions are saying this is what will happen and a projection is conditional. A projection is: ‘If we do this, then this will happen.’”

凯特·马韦尔：“气候模型不做预测——它们做投影。预测是说’将发生什么’，而投影是有条件的。投影意思是：‘如果我们做这个，那么会发生那个。’”

关键点：

• ✅ Prediction = 单一确定性陈述 “This WILL happen”
• ✅ Projection = 条件性情景 “If X happens, then Y will happen”
• ✅ Conditional = 依赖其他因素（如温室气体排放路径、政策选择）
• ✅ 气候科学用 projection 而非 prediction，因未来取决于人类决策

2. 云的双重效应

Kate Marvel: “The thing about clouds is that they have this dual effect. They both cool the planet by blocking sunlight, and they warm the planet because they have their own greenhouse effect.”

凯特·马韦尔：“说到云，它们有双重效应。它们既通过阻挡阳光冷却地球，又因自身温室效应加热地球。”

科学洞察：

• 低云 → 主要反射阳光 → 降温
• 高云 → 主要捕获热辐射 → 升温
• 净效应不确定 → 气候模型主要不确定性来源之一

3. 地球能量失衡测量

Kate Marvel: “Right now, the unit that scientists use to measure the energy imbalance of the planet – how much it’s out of whack – is Watts, like in a light bulb, per square metre.”

凯特·马韦尔：“目前科学家测量地球能量失衡——即它失衡到什么程度——的单位是瓦特每平方米，就像灯泡的瓦数一样。”

Quiz 答案：Watts per square metre (瓦特每平方米)

4. 关键表达回顾

批判性思考题

1. 科学传播伦理：媒体常将"projection"简化为"prediction"，可能导致公众误解确定性。科学传播者如何平衡"可理解性"与"准确性"？

2. 条件性思维：Projection 思维要求接受"取决于我们的选择"。这种思维模式如何应用到个人决策（职业、财务、健康）中？

3. 云反馈不确定性：云是气候模型最大不确定性来源。如果云反馈偏正/偏负，对 2100 年升温预测有何影响？（参考 IPCC ECS 范围 2.5-4°C）

4. 能量失衡隐喻：“Out of whack” 暗示系统本有"正常/平衡"状态。地球气候系统是否存在单一"平衡态"？地质史上气候常态如何变化？

5. 行动 vs 绝望：Kate Marvel 说 “no climate change is not on the table” → 既然零变暖不可能，适应与减缓如何权衡？个人、企业、政府各层面决策如何协同？

完整对话记录

Transcript

Phil: Hello, this is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I’m Phil.

Pippa: And I’m Pippa.

Phil: This summer is becoming one of the hottest ever with heatwaves across Europe. Here in the UK, a new record for the highest June temperature was set at a sweltering 37.7°C. It seems that year after year, temperatures are going up. In 2015, the COP21 summit agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but since then research shows temperatures exceeding that, leading to warnings of catastrophic damage to Earth’s life support systems. In this episode, we’ll be discussing how hot the planet could get, using some useful new vocabulary. And remember, you’ll find a free transcript to read along with on our website, bbclearningenglish.com.

Pippa: But first, I have a question for you, Phil. Scientists monitor climate change using the Earth’s energy imbalance – the difference between the solar energy entering the Earth’s atmosphere and the radiation going back out into space. But which unit do scientists use for this? Is it: a) Fahrenheit, b) Watts per square metre, or c) Joules?

Phil: Ooh, I know Joules is something to do with energy, so I’m going to go with c).

Pippa: Well, we’ll find out the answer at the end of the programme, although careful listeners might hear the answer sooner.

Phil: Ooh!

Pippa: Yes, exciting! So, how do scientists calculate the effects of climate change in the first place? The answer is with models. Huge amounts of physical and chemical data are fed into supercomputers, which then paint pictures of possible futures on Earth. But, as NASA climate scientist Kate Marvel explained to BBC World Service programme The Climate Question, nothing is certain.

Kate Marvel: Climate models don’t make predictions – they make projections. Predictions are saying this is what will happen and a projection is conditional. A projection is: “If we do this, then this will happen.”

Phil: Climate models don’t make predictions. Those are statements about what’s likely to happen. Instead, they make projections about different possible futures, and these depend on many things. In other words, climate models are conditional, meaning that they depend on other factors. The main factor in climate change, of course, is human activity, especially greenhouse gas emissions.

Pippa: Another influence on climate models is clouds. We usually associate hot summers with cloudless blue skies, but in fact clouds play a big part in the climate, as Kate Marvel explained to the BBC World Service.

Kate Marvel: So, the thing about clouds is that they have this dual effect. They both cool the planet by blocking sunlight, and they warm the planet because they have their own greenhouse effect. Right now, the unit that scientists use to measure the energy imbalance of the planet – how much it’s out of whack – is Watts, like in a light bulb, per square metre.

Phil: Kate starts by saying, “The thing about clouds is.” She uses the expression the thing about to introduce the most important detail about something. Here, that detail is that clouds both cool the planet by blocking sunlight but also warm it by trapping heat.

Pippa: So, climate models monitor clouds to accurately measure how much the Earth is out of whack. If something is out of whack, it’s out of balance and not working properly.

Phil: Hmm. Climate models sound very complicated to me, Pippa. For one thing, how can you monitor clouds which are constantly moving and changing?

Pippa: Yeah. And how much information from around the world would the supercomputers need to make accurate projections? It’s a concern that BBC presenter Graihagh Jackson raised with Kate Marvel for BBC World Service programme The Climate Question.

Graihagh Jackson: Surely we need to know the trajectory we’re heading in, in order to adapt.

Kate Marvel: Oh absolutely. You know, I am very pro-science. I am very pro-doing science because no climate change is unfortunately not on the table.

Phil: Kate is very pro-science. If you’re pro-something, it means you’re in favour of it. Models are complex, but they’re necessary because unfortunately no climate change at all is not on the table, and that’s an idiom, meaning it’s not an option.

Pippa: If all this sounds a bit depressing. Kate’s final message is more hopeful. Climate models prove beyond doubt that the problem of global warming is created by humans, so we know beyond doubt that the solution is also in our hands.

Phil: Now, Pippa, careful listeners might already know but go ahead and reveal the correct answer to your question.

Pippa: Yes. I asked you, “Which unit do scientists use to measure the Earth’s energy imbalance?” And the answer was Watts per square metre. And I didn’t know that, Phil. Right, it’s time to recap the vocabulary we heard during this programme. A prediction is a statement about what you think will happen in the future.

Phil: The adjective conditional means depending on other factors.

Pippa: You can use the informal expression the thing about to introduce the most important feature or detail of something.

Phil: The phrase out of whack means out of balance and not working properly.

Pippa: If you’re pro-something, you’re in favour of it.

Phil: And if something is not on the table, it’s not an option. It’s not available to us.

Pippa: That’s the end of this episode of 6 Minute English. Find a worksheet and quiz on our website to test what you’ve learned.

Phil: We’ll be back next week with another episode, so make sure you don’t miss it.

Pippa: Bye for now.

Phil: Bye!

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相关链接

• 6 Minute English 系列主页
• The Climate Question (BBC World Service)
• 上一集：The Enhanced Games (260730)
• 下一集：Children in warzones (260723)
• BBC Learning English 官网

Source: BBC Learning English - 6 Minute English
Published: 06 Aug 2026
Length: ~6 minutes
Presenters: Phil, Pippa
Series: 6 Minute English
Episode Code: 260806